From Local Shocks to Systemic Impacts: A Multi-hazard, Systems-based View of Physical Climate Risk

Please provide a detailed description of the notice you are adding: The final date and time for the submission of bids is Wednesday, 14th October 2026 at 11:00 DO NOT apply directly to the buyer. All tender information MUST be submitted through the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal. Brief Description of Requirement It is broadly recognised that physical climate risk and related nature dependencies can pose risks to economic and financial stability. Governments and regulators in the UK and internationally have recognised this and continue to take action to address underlying vulnerabilities and support wider systemic resilience. Notwithstanding the clear need for accelerated global action, there remains significant uncertainties in appraising the future economic and financial implications of physical risk meaning market practices, government policy and regulation, may not be optimised (within the bounds of wider limitations and mandates) to align with climate-resilient pathways. Climate scenario analysis is a key tool to inform approaches to climate risk management. But due to the complexity and heterogeneity of climate risk, academic and industry evidence has highlighted that current mainstream scenarios – whilst highly sophisticated – may not capture all potential physical risk due to limited data availability and modelling constraints. Furthermore, whilst reference scenarios continue to be enhanced, some potential hazard exposures and highly complex systems dynamics may not be well suited to quantification through empirically calibrated, top-down damage functions, which provide estimates for economic damages in climate scenarios. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the potential for complementary methodologies to support more holistic approaches to physical risk appraisal and management. This is the focus of this research project. Specifically, research will focus on how local physical climate shocks (e.g. storms, flooding, droughts, heat stress) can - through casca